Without evidence of benefit, an intervention should not be presumed to be beneficial or safe.

- Rogue Medic

Conspiracies, Coincidences, and Credulousness


The conspiracy theorists love the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Most Americans think that Lee Harvey Oswald could not have acted alone.

Gallup poll.[1] Click on images to make them larger.

No one crazy person could have been that lucky to have killed someone as well protected as the President of The US. Oswald had several psychological evaluations because he really was a dangerous crazy person.

The Secret Service was not a big deal at the time, so after JFK, this would be even more impossible.







Attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. Image credit.

A conspiracy would result in a perfect assassination.

Nobody would ever know.

Yet, nobody can agree on who was behind the JFK assassination.


Missing from these numbers is the 30% who understand that Oswald acted alone, which is more than twice as many as those who claim any of the various conspiracies.

It couldn’t be the Mafia, because they get caught and inform on each other.

The American government (CIA etc.) repeatedly failed in conspiracies to kill Fidel Castro.[2]

Then there is the moon landing. It is too complicated, so a hoax is the only possible explanation and Stanley Kubrick put his confession in his movies. 2001: A Space Odyssey was just a demonstration of concept. Must be a conspiracy!

Too complicated.

Not complicated enough.

Too many conspiracies!

What about the Titanic and coincidences?

The Titan was the ship in a book written in 1898 that seems to predict the sinking of the RMS Titanic, which did not happen until 1912.

Moving at 22½ knots,[7] the Titanic struck an iceberg on the starboard side on the night of April 14, 1912, in the North Atlantic, 400 nautical miles (740 km; 460 mi) away from Newfoundland.

Moving at 25 knots, The Titan also struck an iceberg on the starboard side on an April night in the North Atlantic, 400 nautical miles (740 km; 460 mi) from Newfoundland (Terranova).[3]


There are many other coincidences between the book and the sinking of the Titanic, but they are just coincidences. They are much more specific than the vague ramblings of Nostradamus or the fraud Sylvia Browne, who died at 77, but predicted she would be 88 when she died. Sylvia Browne also told the mother of a child (who had not been murdered, but was believed to be dead), that she knew her daughter was dead.[4]

Frauds count on coincidences and they count on us to forget the times they are wrong.

When they are right, it is a coincidence, not some evidence that they are Magic.

We do not like to believe that major events can be due to otherwise insignificant coincidences.

President Ronald Reagan was hit by a ricochet that almost killed him. If he had died, how much would have been different? How many conspiracies would have been imagined to explain the incredible coincidence of being killed by a ricochet?

Today is the 50th anniversary of the assassination of another American President by a lone gunman.


[1] Majority in U.S. Still Believe JFK Killed in a Conspiracy – Mafia, federal government top list of potential conspirators
by Art Swift
November 15, 2013
Poll results.

[2] Assassination attempts on Fidel Castro

[3] Futility, or the Wreck of the Titan

[4] Why Do We Treat Some Frauds Differently?
Sat, 11 May 2013
Rogue Medic



  1. We notice coincidences, because something has happened that has an unusual level of similarity to something else that has happened. We don’t notice the thousands of things that happen which have no particular correlation to anything else.

    Of course, all those other, seemingly non-coincidental events are being carefully planned out by the Illuminati, just to throw us off their trail.